Dua minggu kemudian.
Rümeysa menatap keluar jendela saat sopir pribadi mereka mengantarnya menuju Hotel Beaverbrook, yang telah dipesan penuh oleh family office untuk satu bulan penuh.
Tidak butuh waktu lama bagi mereka untuk tiba, karena gerbang dibuka untuk mereka setelah kredensial mereka diperiksa dan diverifikasi, memungkinkannya akhirnya memasuki kompleks hotel yang luas saat mobil berhenti di pintu masuk utama. Salah satu valet hotel bergegas membukakan pintu untuknya saat ia sudah hendak melakukannya sendiri, tapi ia berterima kasih sebelum memasuki hotel dan langsung menuju ruang rapat.
Ketika ia memasuki ruang rapat, ia mendapati semua kursi sudah terisi, hanya menyisakan kursi di ujung meja, tempat ia segera duduk. Semua orang di ruangan itu menatapnya, karena ia adalah bos mereka, dan menunggu persetujuannya untuk memulai rapat. Ia tidak ingin membuang waktu siapa pun dan segera menyetujui rapat dimulai.
"Berdasarkan data yang ekstensif, bersama dengan individu-individu yang kami undang untuk melakukan pemeriksaan, kami semua sepakat secara bulat bahwa mereka benar," kata orang yang dipilih untuk melakukan presentasi akhir saat mereka memulai presentasi.
Keesokan harinya setelah pembicaraan dengan putranya, ketika ia mengadakan konferensi video dengan semua perusahaan Special Purpose Vehicle yang didirikan oleh family office, ia memanggil pertemuan darurat dan memesan hotel dengan tarif premium, menghabiskan satu juta dolar untuk akses eksklusif hotel selama sebulan penuh.
Butuh maksimal dua hari bagi semua hampir lima puluh orang untuk tiba di hotel dan check-in. Baru setelah itu, setelah mengumpulkan perangkat elektronik mereka, menandatangani NDA, dan beberapa dokumen lain, ia membagikan dokumen yang telah disiapkan oleh orang-orang di Odin Analytics untuk dilihat semua orang.
Ia ingin mendengar pendapat para ahli tentang dokumen tersebut, tapi ia tahu nilainya dan bahwa jika itu benar, dokumen itu perlu dilindungi oleh kontrak agar tidak ada seorang pun di ruangan itu yang keluar dan mulai membicarakannya. Butuh dua minggu sebelum mereka memiliki cukup keyakinan untuk memberinya laporan tentang pemikiran mereka mengenai dokumen tersebut.
Ketika ia mendengar bahwa kemungkinan dokumen itu benar cukup tinggi bagi mereka untuk melanjutkan dengan investasi, ia merasakan hatinya jatuh saat menyadari bahwa secara internal ia telah berharap putranya dan Odin Analytics salah. Menjadi benar berarti puluhan juta orang akan mati karena penyakit itu, dan sama sekali bukan perasaan yang baik untuk menghasilkan uang sebagai konsekuensi langsung dari kematian mereka.
Tapi setelah memikirkannya selama dua minggu terakhir, ia tahu bahwa bahkan jika ia tidak melakukan apa pun dalam hal investasi, penyakit ini akan tetap terjadi dan orang-orang akan tetap mati, jadi ia menguatkan dirinya untuk melanjutkannya jika itu benar.
Dengan pemeriksaan yang kini selesai dan semuanya telah diverifikasi, saatnya rencana investasi juga diverifikasi, dan juga untuk memutuskan SPV mana yang ditugaskan tugas apa. Mereka memiliki dua minggu berikutnya untuk menyusun semua rencana itu sebelum segera mengambil tindakan.
Selama seluruh periode, ia tidak pernah menyebut putranya kepada orang-orang di ruangan itu sekali pun, dan semua pertanyaan tentang dari mana makalah revolusioner semacam itu berasal, ia atribusikan semuanya kepada Odin Analytics. Ia tidak ingin perhatian apa pun dari masalah ini diarahkan kepada putranya, betapapun kecil kemungkinannya percakapan yang terjadi di dalam akan bocor ke luar.
........
"Inilah yang mereka tingkatkan dari rencana investasimu," kata Rümeysa sambil meletakkan dokumen tebal untuk ia periksa. Dokumen itu tampak dua kali lebih tebal dari yang ia berikan kepada ibunya tiga minggu lalu, membuatnya bertanya-tanya apakah ini bentuk balas dendamnya karena telah melakukan hal yang sama.
"Lihatlah dan periksa apakah ada hal yang membuatmu penasaran atau ingin kau ubah sehingga kami dapat memodifikasi rencana sebelum kami mengimplementasikannya," tambahnya sambil menggeser tumpukan dokumen ke arah Fatih di meja makan yang sama tempat ia melakukan hal yang sama.
"Berapa lama aku punya waktu?" tanya Fatih sambil mengambil dokumen-dokumen itu.
"Semakin cepat kau selesai memeriksanya, semakin baik, karena kami berencana segera melakukan investasi secepat mungkin," katanya, berhenti sejenak sebelum menambahkan, "Tapi kau bisa mengambil waktu seminggu untuk memeriksanya jika terlalu banyak," untuk mencoba meringankan beban putranya.
"Aku akan memberi jawaban besok," katanya sebelum meraih cangkir di tengah meja makan yang berisi pulpen, pensil, penghapus, penggaris, dan benda-benda alat tulis kecil lainnya, mengambil sebuah pulpen dan langsung menyelami dokumen itu.
Dokumen itu berisi lebih banyak dari yang bahkan ia perkirakan, karena dimulai dari menargetkan bukan hanya perusahaan tunggal tetapi bertaruh melawan seluruh sektor, short terhadap indeks VIX (indeks ketakutan) 1, S&P, dan lainnya, termasuk Credit Default Swaps 2.
Jika disusun dengan benar melalui beberapa broker dan menggunakan leverage serta instrumen yang lebih rumit, kontrak CDS dengan total dua ratus juta bisa memiliki pengembalian dari 10x hingga 50x dari investasi, 1 artinya dua ratus juta dolar bisa menghasilkan puluhan miliar jika benar-benar berhasil. Tapi jika tidak, mereka akan kehilangan semuanya.
Yang menarik perhatiannya adalah prediksi kapan titik terendah pasar akan terjadi, sebelum pemerintah mulai mencetak uang untuk menopangnya. Banyak dari mereka memperkirakannya antara April dan Mei, dan Fatih segera membuka pulpen dan memberi tanda X pada prediksi itu sebelum menulis di atasnya, "Kita harus keluar dari semua posisi short kita pada tanggal 15 Maret."
Tanggal 23 Maret adalah saat AS menyetujui Quantitative Easing yang hampir tak terbatas dan mencetak uang seperti tidak ada hari esok. Itu adalah sesuatu yang ia ingat dengan jelas karena dalam periode itulah berita tentang orang-orang yang menerima cek langsung dari pemerintah muncul, dan ia adalah salah satu penerima itu di kehidupan sebelumnya.
Jadi mereka perlu keluar dari semua taruhan bahwa pasar akan turun dan bertaruh ke arah yang berlawanan untuk banyak industri yang jatuh, sambil meningkatkan investasi mereka pada industri yang sudah naik.
Rümeysa hanya menatap Fatih, yang memeriksa satu halaman per menit sambil membuat penyesuaian kecil di sana-sini, saat ia bertanya-tanya dari mana semua kepercayaan diri ini berasal. Tapi ia tidak akan mengganggunya sama sekali, karena dialah yang menjadi penyebab penemuan mereka, jadi wawasannya akan dipandang baik olehnya dan akan dipertimbangkan ketika dokumen itu ditinjau ulang dan disesuaikan.
Butuh lima jam penuh bagi Fatih untuk memeriksa dokumen itu dengan fokus penuh sebelum akhirnya selesai, dan itulah saat ia bersyukur kepada Tuhan atas kekuatan lehernya, karena jika otot lehernya tidak terlatih, ia sudah mengalami keseleo leher.
Ia berjalan ke ruang tamu tempat ibunya menonton TV dan menyerahkan dokumen itu kepadanya, membuat ibunya terkejut. Ibunya segera menghela napas pasrah, tahu bahwa ia tidak akan tidur dalam waktu dekat, karena sekarang ia harus memeriksanya sepanjang malam sebelum menyetujui dan mengirimkannya kepada para eksekutif yang masih di hotel agar semuanya bergerak secepat mungkin.
......
Ketika kau punya uang dan sudah menjalin hubungan dengan bank, broker pasar saham, bank swasta, dan bank investasi di seluruh dunia maju melalui entitas yang berbeda-beda, segalanya bergerak cepat.
Tiga hari setelah dokumen akhir disetujui, SPV mulai bergerak, semuanya berfokus pada area yang berbeda menggunakan bank investasi yang berbeda agar dapat menyebarkan tindakan mereka seluas mungkin dan tidak menarik perhatian entitas tunggal mana pun yang mungkin menyadari apa yang sedang terjadi, bahkan jika mereka tidak akan tahu mengapa.
Rencananya adalah mendistribusikan taruhan-taruhan ini sepanjang bulan Desember dan dua minggu pertama Januari dan menyelesaikan semuanya saat itu sehingga mereka hanya perlu menunggu insiden itu terjadi.
Mereka terburu-buru karena dokumen itu sudah dikirim ke WHO, dan jika mereka membacanya, memeriksanya, dan mengeluarkan pengumuman, itu akan segera memulai kejatuhan pasar, atau begitulah pikiran mereka.
Tapi sementara ibunya harus menggunakan obat tidur untuk bisa tidur karena kecemasan yang ia rasakan akibat besarnya utang yang saat ini mereka akumulasi setiap detiknya, Fatih, di sisi lain, sedang menaiki pesawat menuju Monako untuk pergi menerima gelar F3 2019-nya bersama Robert Shwartzman, yang finis kedua, dan Marcus Armstrong, yang finis ketiga musim itu.
Karena perasaan tidak senangnya saat ini terhadap FIA, ia ingin melewatkannya, tapi menurut peraturan, melakukannya akan mengakibatkan denda, tapi juga Dampak Politik dan Disipliner, yang lebih mengkhawatirkannya daripada denda yang bisa ia bayar dengan mudah. Setelah itu, ia juga memiliki pertemuan akhir tahun dengan pusat penelitian Prometheus yang ia dirikan pada 2017, ketika ia meminta ibunya membantunya mendanainya, untuk pembaruan tentang semua peningkatan yang telah mereka lakukan di area-area yang ia minta untuk diteliti.
Two weeks later.
Rümeysa looked out of the window as their private driver drove her towards the Beaverbrook Hotel, which the family office had fully booked for an entire month.
It didn’t take them long to arrive, as the gate was opened for them once their credentials were checked and verified, allowing her to finally enter the massive hotel estate as the car came to a stop at the grand entrance. One of the hotel valets rushed to open the door for her while she was in the middle of doing so already, but she thanked him before entering the hotel and heading directly to the meeting room.
When she entered the meeting room, she found all of the chairs already occupied, leaving only the one at the head of the table, where she immediately took a seat. Everyone in the room was looking at her, as she was their boss, and was waiting for her to give the go-ahead for the meeting to start. She didn’t want to waste anyone’s time and immediately approved for the meeting to start.
"Based on the extensive data, along with the individuals we have invited to do the checking, we have all unanimously agreed that they are correct," the person chosen to do the final presentation said as they started their presentation.
The very next day after the talk with her son, when she had a video conference call with all of the Special Purpose Vehicle companies that were founded by the family office, she called for an emergency gathering and booked the hotel at a premium, costing her a million dollars for the entire month of exclusive access to the hotel.
It took everyone a maximum of two days before all the nearly fifty people arrived at the hotel and checked in. Only then, after collecting their electronic devices, signing an NDA, and a few other documents, did she distribute the documents that those at Odin Analytics had prepared for everyone to have a look.
She wanted to hear the experts’ opinion on the document, but she knew its value and that if it were true, it needed to be protected by contracts so that no one in the room would go out and start talking about it. It took them two weeks before they had enough confidence to give her a report of their thoughts on the document.
When she heard that the chances of the document being correct were high enough for them to go ahead with investments, she felt her heart drop as she realized that she had internally been hoping that her son and Odin Analytics were wrong. Being right meant that tens of millions of people were going to die from the disease, and it was not a good feeling at all to earn money as a direct consequence of their deaths.
But having thought about it for the last two weeks, she knew that even if she didn’t do anything investment-wise, this disease was going to happen and people were going to die anyway, so she steeled herself to go ahead with it if it was true.
With the checks now complete and everything having been verified, it was time for the investment plan to be verified as well, and also to decide which SPV was assigned what task. They had the next two weeks to come up with all of those plans before immediately taking action.
During the entire period, she had never mentioned her son to the people in the room once, and all the questions regarding where such a groundbreaking paper came from, she attributed all of it to Odin Analytics. She didn’t want any of the attention from this matter to be directed to her son, no matter how improbable it was that the conversations happening inside would leak to the outside.
........
"This is what they improved on your investment plan," Rümeysa said as she placed a thick document for him to go through. The document looked twice as thick as the one she had given his mother three weeks ago, making him wonder if this was her form of revenge for having done the same.
"Take a look at it and see if there are things you are curious about or want to modify so that we can modify the plan before we implement it," she added as she slid the stack of documents towards Fatih on the same dinner table where he had done the same.
"How long do I have?" Fatih asked as he collected the documents.
"The faster you finish going through it, the better, because we are planning on immediately making the investments as soon as possible," she said, pausing for a moment before she added, "But you can take a week to go through it if it is too much," to try and unburden her son.
"I will give an answer tomorrow," he said before reaching for the cup at the center of the dining table that had pens, pencils, erasers, a ruler, and other small stationery objects, picking a pen and immediately diving into the document.
The document contained more than even he had expected, as it started from targeting not just single companies but betting against the entire sector, shorting against the <anno data-annotation-id="90c2976d-8433-d547-69eb-b0b8867dfc75" data-title="VIX index (fear index)">VIX index (fear index) 1 </anno>, the S&P, and more, including <anno data-annotation-id="ac1761da-75eb-176e-5213-f028d38aa538" data-title="Credit Default Swaps">Credit Default Swaps 2 </anno>.
If structured correctly through multiple brokers and using leverage and more complicated instruments, <anno data-annotation-id="1062c5b8-bcf5-a6aa-850e-20c53ae1af08" data-title="a two hundred million total CDS contract could have a return from anywhere between 10x all the way to 50x of the investment,">a two hundred million total CDS contract could have a return from anywhere between 10x all the way to 50x of the investment, 1 </anno> meaning that two hundred million dollars could return tens of billions if it actually works. But if it doesn’t, they would be losing all of it.
What attracted his attention was the prediction of when the bottom of the market would be, before governments would start printing money to prop it up. Many of them predicted it to be between April and May, and Fatih immediately opened the pen and put an X on that prediction before writing over it, "We must exit all of our short positions by the 15th of March."
The 23rd of March was when the US approved near-infinite Quantitative Easing and printed money like there was no tomorrow. It was something he remembered clearly because it was within that period when news of people receiving checks from the government directly came out, and he was one of those recipients in his previous life.
So they needed to have exited all the bets that things were going down and bet in the opposite direction for many of the industries that fell, while increasing their investment in the ones that were already on the rise.
Rümeysa just looked at Fatih, who was going through a page a minute while making small adjustments here and there, as she wondered where all of this confidence was coming from. But she wasn’t going to interrupt him at all, as he was the one who had been the cause of their discovery, so his insight was going to be looked upon favorably by her and would be taken into consideration when the document was re-reviewed and adjusted.
It took Fatih five entire hours of going through the document with full focus before he finally finished it, and it was the time he thanked God for his neck strength, as if his neck muscles weren’t developed, he would have already had a neck sprain.
He walked to the living room where his mother was watching TV and handed her the document, to her surprised look. She soon exhaled with a sigh of resignation, knowing that she was not going to be sleeping anytime soon, since she would now have to go through it for the rest of the night before approving and sending it to the executives still at the hotel for things to move as fast as possible.
......
When you have money and have already established relationships with banks, stock market brokers, private banks, and investment banks all over the developed world through different entities, things move fast.
Three days after the final document was approved, the SPVs started making their moves, all focusing on different areas using different investment banks so as to spread their actions as wide as possible and not attract the attention of any single entity who might realize what was happening, even if they wouldn’t know why.
The plan was to distribute these bets throughout the month of December and the first two weeks of January and have everything finished by then so that they would only be waiting for the incident to happen.
They were rushing because the document had already been sent to the WHO, and if they were to read it, go through it, and issue an announcement, that would immediately start the fall of the market, or so they thought.
But while his mother was having to use sleeping medication to sleep from the anxiety she was feeling due to the large amount of debt they were currently accumulating with each passing second, Fatih, on the other hand, was boarding a plane heading to Monaco to go and receive his 2019 F3 title along with Robert Shwartzman, who finished second, and Marcus Armstrong, who finished third that season.
Due to his current ill feelings towards the FIA, he wanted to skip it, but per the regulations, doing so would result in a fine, but also Political and Disciplinary Backlash, which was what worried him more than even the fine that he could pay easily. After that, he also had an end-of-the-year meeting with the Prometheus research center that he had founded in 2017, when he asked his mother to help him fund it, for an update on all of the improvements they had made in the areas he had commissioned research for.
<annotations style="display: none;">The VIX, officially known as the Cboe Volatility Index, is a real-time market index that measures the stock market’s expectation of near-term volatility. It is widely referred to as Wall Street’s "Fear Index" or "Fear Gauge" because its value typically spikes when investors are panicking and stock prices are falling.A Credit Default Swap (CDS) is a financial derivative that acts as an insurance policy against a borrower defaulting on their debt. It allows investors to buy or sell protection on the creditworthiness of a specific company, country, or pool of debt. In institutional finance, a CDS is the primary tool used by hedge funds and Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) to execute massive market short positions.Billionaire investor Bill Ackman generated a $2.6 billion profit from a $27 million investment in February 2020 by anticipating that global COVID-19 lockdowns would cause corporate bankruptcies to skyrocket. Operating through his firm, Pershing Square, he used the $27 million to buy "naked" Credit Default Swaps (CDS)—essentially buying cheap default insurance—on a massive $71 billion pool of investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds. Because he did not actually own the underlying bonds, he was purely speculating; when the pandemic hit weeks later and corporate default panic peaked, the market value of his insurance contracts exploded exponentially, allowing him to sell the CDS contracts back to the market at a historic premium before any actual defaults even occurred.</annotations>
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